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June 21, 2026

STORY OF THE WEEK

Markets Are Celebrating a Strait That's Halfway Open

Oil prices fall and commercial crossings hit a two-month high, but canceled talks and unresolved transit terms keep the recovery process uncertain.

Markets Are Celebrating a Strait That's Halfway Open

Oil prices fell and stocks rallied this week as the Strait of Hormuz began reopening following an interim agreement between the United States and Iran. The deal, which aims to restore commercial shipping through a key global energy corridor and allow Iranian oil exports to increase, eased fears of a prolonged energy shock that had weighed on markets throughout the spring.

Gulf producers have begun preparing more crude for market as the Strait reopens. Kuwait Petroleum offered crude for July delivery after announcing plans to restore output, while Abu Dhabi National Oil Company issued another tender this month. Alongside the rebound in Hormuz crossings, these moves connect this week’s market rally to actual supply activity.

  • Brent crude fell below $80 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to roughly $76 per barrel, with both benchmarks declining more than 5% following news of the interim agreement.

  • Commercial crossings through the Strait of Hormuz rose to 25 on June 18, the highest single-day total since April 18 and more than five times early-June levels.

  • Production could recover quickly, with roughly half of Gulf oil fields capable of returning to prewar output within two weeks but prices may stay elevated as countries replenish reserves.

With the planned U.S.-Iran talks called off Friday, questions remain around the final agreement and pace of normalization. The recovery has begun, but its durability will depend on whether shipping activity keeps rising, producers continue to restore output, and transit rules allow the reopening to hold.

CLIMBS OF THE WEEK

What's Up in the Markets

What's Up in the Markets

SPCX (+14.9%): SpaceX rose from its first trading day close even as the post-IPO surge cooled, with investors continuing to weigh strong demand against a limited public float.

MRVL (+11.0%): Marvell Technology gained as Amazon explores the market for selling their custom silicon produced by Marvell.

INTC (+7.6%): Intel jumped after reports of a preliminary chipmaking agreement with Apple boosted confidence in the company’s U.S. foundry business.

SLIDES OF THE WEEK

What's Down in the Markets

What's Down in the Markets

ACN (-24.8): Accenture fell after lowering its full-year revenue outlook and reported weaker bookings, raising concerns about consulting demand.

XOM (-6.3%): Exxon slid as the reopening of Hormuz pushed crude prices lower and reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had supported energy stocks.

PL (-9.4%): Planet Labs fell as investors took profits in smaller space-related stocks following SpaceX’s market debut, cooling a rally that had lifted the sector earlier in the year.

CHART OF THE WEEK

Will SpaceX Investors Float Away?

Will SpaceX Investors Float Away?

IPO lockups can create a temporary imbalance between strong demand and limited tradable supply. In SpaceX’s case, only a portion of shares are eligible for sale immediately after the offering, while additional tranches become available as lockup restrictions expire.

That supply dynamic helps explain why IPOs can rise sharply early on and later face pressure. Lockup expirations do not guarantee sales, but they increase the number of shares that can trade, making each unlock date important to monitor. A larger public float alters the previous balance between supply and demand. Elon Musk’s shares are scheduled to unlock on June 13, 2027, at which point 100% of SPCX equity would be eligible for sale. Traders on the secondary markets, though, can transact SPCX stock freely as lockups only apply to insiders prior to the public offering. The underwriters of the IPO sold an additional 83.33 million shares in a “greenshoe” offering due to strong initial demand, on Monday, June 15th after the initial offering on Friday, June 12th.

The Current